Goldstein, Lyle J. 1972-

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Goldstein, Lyle J. 1972-

PERSONAL:

Born March 18, 1972. Education: Harvard University, B.A.; Johns Hopkins University, M.A.; Princeton University, Ph.D.

ADDRESSES:

Office—U.S. Naval War College, 686 Cushing Rd., Newport, RI 02841.

CAREER:

U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI, associate professor of strategic studies and vice chair of Eurasia studies group.

WRITINGS:

Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Comparative Historical Analysis, Stanford University Press (Stanford, CA), 2006.

(Editor, with Andrew S. Erickson, William S. Murray, and Andrew R. Wilson) China's Future Nuclear Submarine Force, U.S. Naval Institute Press (Annapolis, MD), 2007.

SIDELIGHTS:

In Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Comparative Historical Analysis, Lyle J. Goldstein examines the geopolitical effects of the acquisition of nuclear weapons. His argument, as summarized by Naval War College Review contributor James J. Wirtz, is that this acquisition "creates the incentive to prevent war, exacerbate existing rivalries, and produce crises, but over time even asymmetric nuclear balances tend to moderate enduring rivalries and calm more acute conflicts." History shows that, when a relatively weak country first launches a nuclear weapons program, the immediate effect is destabilizing because more powerful states are tempted to take action to halt these emerging programs before the country actually builds a bomb. Once the country has acquired a real nuclear weapon, however, conditions tend to stabilize because established powers are forced to moderate their stances.

Goldstein presents a thorough analysis of cold war history to demonstrate that, on many occasions over more than four decades, the chief nuclear powers (the United States and the Soviet Union) came very close to catastrophic war. This evidence, wrote Stephen J. Blank in a Parameters review, convincingly shows that "the Cold War was not, as some claim, a golden age of stable deterrence, but rather a close brush with the apocalypse, and not just with regard to the missiles in Cuba." Goldstein's evidence—which covers the period from the first proliferation of nuclear weapons by the United States and the Soviet Union immediately after World War II, to the counterproliferation wars against Iraq in the 1990s and 2000s—reveals that the heads of strong states have frequently contemplated preventive war to destroy developing arsenals and infrastructure, but have most often refrained from attack because of moral, political, economic, and logistical reasons. In rare cases, however, such as the Israeli strike on Iraq's Osiraq nuclear reactor in 1981 and the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, preventive attacks were carried out.

Advancements in precision guidance systems for nuclear warheads and in global reconnaissance capabilities, Goldstein suggests, have made it less difficult to argue the case for preventive war, because precisely targeted attacks can minimize casualties. This circumstance, however, could lead to a period of significant geopolitical instability if established nuclear powers see increased opportunities for halting the nuclear ambitions of weaker states. While questioning Goldstein's defense of the George W. Bush administration's policies concerning Iraq and North Korea, Blank observed that Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction "adds a welcome touch of provocative argumentation based on rigorous and precise reasoning regarding a subject which is all too often engulfed by apocalyptic and overblown charges." In Wirtz's view, the book is "compelling, theoretically informed, well written, and well organized … [and] constitutes a significant and enduring contribution to the literature on nuclear proliferation, deterrence, and preventive war."

BIOGRAPHICAL AND CRITICAL SOURCES:

PERIODICALS

Choice: Current Reviews for Academic Libraries, September, 2006, H. Nelsen, review of Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Comparative Historical Analysis, p. 195.

CML Army Chemical Review, January-June, 2007, Reid Kirby, review of Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction, p. 62.

Comparative Strategy, October-November, 2006, Alan F. Steinberg, review of Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction, p. 345.

International Affairs, November, 2006, David Palkki, review of Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction, p. 1178.

International History Review, December, 2006, Richard Ned Lerow, review of Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction, p. 921.

Naval War College Review, spring, 2007, James J. Wirtz, review of Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction, p. 154.

Parameters, winter, 2006, Stephen J. Blank, review of Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction, p. 143.

Reference & Research Book News, May, 2006, review of Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction.