Family: Fertility, Marriage, and the Family since 1950

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Fertility, Marriage, and the Family since 1950

During the second half of the twentieth century the annual number of births in Ireland reached a peak of 74,000 in 1980 and subsequently decreased by over a third, to reach a low point of 48,200 in 1994. The period since 1980 has seen births decline and then pick up again, attaining a level of 57,900 in 2001. During the 1950s and 1960s births exceeded 60,000 annually—apart from 1958 (58,510) and 1961 (59,825). Having risen to 64,000 in 1964 and declined to 61,000 in 1968, births began their upward movement to reach the 1980 maximum figure—the only decline being a temporary one during the mid-1970s.

Fertility in Decline since the 1960s

To gain a greater insight into fertility trends it is necessary to look at the number of women of childbearing age (those aged 15 to 49 years) and at the fertility levels of these women. Between 1961 and 1981 the number of women aged 15 to 49 years increased by over 30 percent. More significant was the increase of nearly 50 percent in the number of women in the prime childbearing age group (20 to 39 years). Therefore, the 20 percent increase in births observed during this period actually masked a significant decline in the underlying fertility rates of these women.

The total fertility rate (i.e., the average number of children born to each woman), which was slightly over 4 during the mid-1960s, fell to 2.08 in 1989. That was the first year in which Irish fertility fell below the replacement level of 2.1—the level at which each generation replaces itself. Having fallen further to 1.85 in 1994 and 1995, the fertility rate has recovered slightly and stood at 1.98 in 2001.

A striking change that occurred during the second half of the twentieth century was the increase in the proportion of births outside marriage. In 1950 the relevant proportion was fairly minor at 2.6 percent; by 2001 nearly one in three births were outside marriage. The proportion of nonmarital births has increased every year since 1971, with the most significant increases taking place from the mid-1980s onward. It is important to bear in mind that nonmarital births include those to single mothers as well as those to couples who choose to cohabit rather than marry. While the popular perception of a birth outside marriage may be of an unplanned pregnancy for a young girl, no fewer than 40 percent of births outside marriage in the year 2000 were to women who had previous children.

Another change was the decline in the number of home births. In the mid-1950s the proportion of home births stood at one in three. The figure had fallen below 1 percent by 1974 and has been less than 0.5 percent since 1977.

The average age of women who bore children in 1960 was 31.5 years. This fell to 29.6 years by the mid-1970s, reflecting an increase in the fertility rates of younger women—especially those in their twenties—over this period. The average age of women at childbearing has since increased and stood at 30.7 in 2001. Looking at firstborn children only, the average age of the mother increased from 25.5 in 1975 to 28.0 in 2001, indicating a tendency for women to postpone childbirth, thereby curtailing family size.

The number of births to teenage girls increased from around 1,100 a year in the mid-1950s to just over 3,000 by the late 1990s. While only one in four of these births were to unmarried teenagers in the earlier part of the half-century under review, by 1980 the proportion had grown to 40 percent, and it has exceeded 90 percent since 1993. This reflects both a departure from the situation in which a pregnant teenager might hastily marry and also an actual fall in the number of marriages in which the bride was a teenager.

Marriage Going out of Fashion?

The popular perception is that marriage as an institution is going out of fashion, but this overstates the actual situation. A comparison of the number of marriages in 1950 (16,000) with the 2001 total (19,200) indicates an increase of 20 percent. However, when account is taken of the growth of one-third in the underlying population, a fall in the crude marriage rate (the number of marriages per 1,000 population) is the outcome. In fact, the marriage rate, which stood at 5.4 in 1950, exceeded 7.0 for the first five years of the 1970s and then fell to 5.0 by 2001.

Although the crude marriage rate does take account of the underlying population, a more refined measure is the total female first-marriage rate, which is based on age-specific marriage rates. By this measure the probability of a female marrying has fallen by over a third in the years 1960 to 2000. During the same period the average age of the bride at first marriage declined from 26.9 years in 1960 to 24.6 in 1980 and increased to 27.9 by the late 1990s. The general picture is therefore that proportionately fewer females marry, and in the case of those who do, the average age is higher than before.

The number of private households increased from just over 660,000 in 1946 to 1.1 million fifty years later (an increase of 68.3%). Average household size fell from 4.2 to 3.1 persons during the same period, with most of the decrease occurring since 1960 as a direct result of decreasing fertility and increasing household formation.

The number of childless couples (whether married or not) increased by over a third between 1981 and 1996, while families with one or two children also grew appreciably over the same period (by 25.9% and 34.3%, respectively). Larger families have become less common, with the result that the average number of children per family fell from 2.2 to 1.8 between 1981 and 1996.

Cohabiting couples accounted for 3.9 percent of all family units in 1996, and of these, about 60 percent comprised couples without children. Given the age profile of the partners involved, there is strong evidence that cohabitation is not just a precursor to marriage but a permanent form of union.

The number of separated persons more than doubled in the ten years from 1986 to 1996. In 1986 there were 37,200 separated persons. This grew to over 55,000 by 1991, and the 1996 census recorded close to 88,000 separated persons, corresponding to 5.4 percent of ever-married persons.

Female Employment

In 1961, when the population of Ireland was at a historically low level of 2.8 million persons, the number of persons in employment was 1,053,000. Females accounted for 26.4 percent of these. By 1996 the number of women at work had increased by 226,000, representing an increase of 81.5 percent, while male employment increased by only 28,100. The period 1996 to 2001 was one of unprecedented employment growth (greater than 29.2%). At the end of this period women accounted for 40.9 percent of total employment. Furthermore, about 45 percent of these working women were married. The corresponding figure in 1971 was only 14 percent. The labor-force participation of Irish women has now reached the European norm. In 2001 the figure for Ireland was 47.5 percent compared with an overall European Union figure of 47 percent.

Ireland's Demography in a European Context

Ireland's demography is markedly different from that of most of its Western European neighbors. Major demographic changes have tended to occur much later and at a slower pace in Ireland than elsewhere in Europe. In particular, fertility rates have been, and continue to be, higher in Ireland than in other western countries. Consequently, Ireland has a younger population profile and has yet to experience the aging of population evident in mainland Europe, with its attendant pressures on healthcare and the pension system.

Since the 1990s Ireland's population has been growing at a faster rate than those of other European Union countries. This growth has been fueled by both natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) and net immigration. Because of the young age-profile of its population, Ireland can expect a continuing, though slowing, natural increase in population; in other European countries population growth is already close to zero or even negative.