Population—Emigration and Immigration

Most of the exchange between geographic units consists of the movement of goods and services. Nonetheless, shifts in moveable factors of production, capital, labor, knowledge, and entrepreneurship are often important. For voluntary migration, matters of "push" and "pull" are relevant, that is, whether the dominant factors were negative ones in the areas of origin or positive ones in the areas of destination. With the exception of forced migrations, the important factors were usually the "pull" of more favorable labor-market conditions, economic opportunities, and living conditions at the destinations. There were, however, notable exceptions, such as the great potato famine of the 1840s in Ireland and other areas of Europe and the massive displacement of persons associated with the destruction of wars, especially World Wars I and II.

INVOLUNTARY AND VOLUNTARY MIGRATIONS IN THE COLONIAL PERIOD

Since 1450 a large forced migration was that of black Africans taken as slaves and moved to the Western Hemisphere. Over the period 1451 to 1870, almost 9.6 million slaves were so transported, the largest number going to Brazil (3.6 million). The Caribbean, especially the sugar producing islands, received about 4 million. British North America received only about 400,000 (about 4.2 percent of the total), but the mortality rate outside North American was so high, and the fertility rate so low, that by about 1825 North American had 36 percent of the slaves in the Western Hemisphere. Great Britain and other nations began outlawing and suppressing slavery and the slave trade in the early nineteenth century. The slave trade continued, however, to a reduced extent and illegally in the Atlantic, and also from West Africa to areas in West and South Asia. The peak of the imports of slaves to the Americas was in the eighteenth century, with an annual average of about 55,000. Slavery in the Western Hemisphere terminated with the end of the U.S. Civil War in 1865 and the abolition of slavery in Puerto Rico (1873), Cuba (1886), and Brazil (1888).

From 1450 to approximately 1850 we have limited information about voluntary migrations. The most important international flow was from Western Europe to the Western Hemisphere. It is estimated that more than 60 million Europeans emigrated from the beginning of colonization (c. 1500) to 1940. Subsequently, there has been a gross movement out of Europe of almost 15 million, with a net movement of probably 10 to 12 million. Most of this migration went to North America (defined here as the United States and Canada), but significant numbers went to Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, Uruguay, and other areas of the Caribbean and Latin America. Between 1500 and 1760 the total emigrant flow from Europe to the Western Hemisphere was likely about 2.1 million persons, of which about 36 percent originated in Britain, 33 percent in Spain, 25 percent in Portugal, and 5 percent in France.

Information for the colonial and early national period in British North America and the United States is not easy to obtain because regular collection of immigration statistics only began in the United States at major ports in 1819. Estimates of white European emigration to British North America and the United States for the period 1700 to 1820 range between 765,000 and 1.3 million Europeans. Most originated in Britain (England, Scotland, Wales) and Ireland, but some came from the Rhineland in Germany and the Netherlands, and a number of Huguenots (French Protestants) sought refuge. Although there was a gross flow of about 25,000 migrants from France in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries to the Saint Lawrence Valley and other areas of New France, most of the population growth after about 1680 (from about 9,400 to about 75,000 in 1760) came from natural increase. Spain and Portugal did not encourage immigration into their Western Hemisphere colonial possessions. Nonetheless, it is estimated that about 680,000 emigrated from Spain and about 520,000 emigrated from Portugal up to 1760. Most of the French, British, and Dutch who went to their respective West Indian colonies did so because of civil administration or military service or to seek wealth in sugar cultivation. Many died there, and some returned to Europe.

1820 TO 1960

In the period since 1820 increasingly large numbers of migrants began to cross the Atlantic from Europe to North America. Between 1820 and 1920, when the United States had relatively few restrictions on immigration,

and when regular data collection on immigrant arrivals began, about 33.7 million persons were recorded as having entered the country, of whom 29.8 million (or over 88%) were from Europe. And this does not include some migrants who entered as first-class passengers, through minor ports, or across land borders (mostly Canada) earlier in the century. It is a gross flow, because immigrant returns were not recorded until 1908. Nonetheless, these are huge numbers. For that period, net immigration represented about a quarter of U.S. population growth, and up to a third in some decades (1850–1860 and 1900–1910). During that century a dramatic shift took place in the composition of migrants by area of origin within Europe. For the decades 1820 to 1890, 82 percent of all migrants (and 91% of European migrants) came from Northern and Western Europe (Britain, Ireland, Scandinavia, France, the Low Countries, and western Germany). But a major change began in the 1880s. For the decades 1891 to 1920, only 25 percent of all migrants (and 28% of European migrants) originated in Northwest Europe, whereas 64 percent of all migrants (and 72% of European migrants) were from regions in South, Central, and East Europe (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Austria-Hungary, Russia, and regions in the Balkans and eastern Germany).

This was the first great shift in migration to the United States. The second occurred from the 1960s onwards. Earlier in the twentieth century U.S. immigration had been restricted with the passage of the Literacy Test Act (1917), the Emergency Immigration Act (1921), and the Immigration and National Origins Act (1924), which finally established annual quotas of 2 percent of the share of each nationality group in the census of 1890. In 1929 the quotas were ultimately to be based on the census of 1920 but for a total not to exceed 150,000 per year, in contrast to the levels in excess of a million per year in the years just prior to World War I. These quotas remained more or less the rule until 1965, when additional immigration-reform legislation was passed that allowed liberal rules on family reunification and modified quotas for areas outside Europe. More recently, the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 further modified the rules. Whereas gross immigration to the United States was 819,000 for the years 1921 to 1960 (of which 58% was from Europe), the flow over the years 1961 to 1997 was 22 million, of which only 17 percent was from Europe. Now flows from Asia, Africa, and especially Latin America dominate migration into the United States. Annual migration inflows have begun to match those seen in the years just prior to World War I.

The situation for Canada was somewhat different. That nation experienced immigration rates comparable to, or even higher than, those for the United States from the middle of the nineteenth century to the 1920s. Regular and consistent data are not available before the 1850s. Although the gross flows were substantial, many of the migrants went on to the United States. For the four decades 1861 to 1901, net immigration to Canada was thus actually negative, as outflows to the United States out-paced gross inflows. Thereafter, the net inflow was positive, except in the 1930s, which was also a decade of net outflow from the United States.

Since 1901 net migration has contributed about one-quarter to one-third of Canada's population growth. Regular statistics on migrants' countries of origin only began to be reported in Canada in 1956. Prior to that, however, census data on population by nativity reveal that most of the foreign-born originated in the British Isles: 60 percent in 1871, 55 percent in 1921, and 48 percent

cent in 1951. The remainder were mostly from other European nations: 48 percent in 1871, 42 percent in 1921, and 49 percent in 1951. More recently, however, immigration in Canada has shifted away from European origins. In 1989, for example, only 31 percent of migrants were from Europe, the former U.S.S.R., the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. Overall, about 13 million persons migrated into Canada between 1852 and 1990.

Among the sending countries, the highest emigration rates out of Europe were from the British Isles (which included Ireland, which had the highest emigration rates of any area), Norway, Sweden, and Germany until about 1890, when Italy, Portugal, and Spain emerged as major points of origin. Just prior to World War I, the highest emigration rates were from Italy, Portugal, Spain, and the British Isles (especially Ireland). The 1930s and the 1940s marked a dramatic decline in emigration from Europe because of depressed economic conditions in the United States in the 1930s, the restrictions and dislocations created by World War II (1939–1945), and the restrictive immigration-quota legislation enacted in the United States during the 1920s. Immigration levels to the United States from Europe never recovered to pre–World War I levels after 1945, largely due to improved economic conditions in Western Europe and

restrictions on emigration from the U.S.S.R. and Soviet Bloc nations.

Excepting political upheavals, such as the revolutions of 1848, and natural disasters, such as the great potato famine of the 1840s in Ireland, Germany, and Scandinavia, most migrants were motivated by labor-market concerns—better wages and lifetime economic opportunities. Also, over the nineteenth century, transport costs fell with the advent of the railroad, better canal and river transport, and iron- and steel-hulled propeller-driven steamships. Cycles in migration over time to the United States were more closely attuned to economic conditions in the United States (a "pull") than to poor conditions in Europe (a "push"). Exceptions were the late 1840s, with the potato famines and serious political unrest, and the two world wars of the twentieth century. Migration tended to be selective of young, single men in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. For example, the sex ratio of the foreign-born population in the United States was 124 males per 100 females in 1850, in contrast to 103 for the native white population. A similar result was 129 in 1910, contrasted to 103 for the native white population. Migrants from Europe in the century 1820 to 1920 also tended to weight more towards unskilled and semi-skilled workers.

There has also been a substantial return migration back to Europe, especially once transport costs fell during the nineteenth century. It is estimated that the return rate was about 50 percent in the 1908 to 1912 period. Nonetheless, the population growth and ethnic composition of the United States and Canada were very much influenced by the very large flows of population across the Atlantic. Evidence of this may be found in the ancestry question in the 1990 U.S. census, in which 73.1 percent of the population responding claimed European ancestry and another 8.2 percent claimed African-American ancestry.

Other overseas areas in the British Empire were significant recipients of migrants over the period 1851 to 1960. Notably, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa received nearly 6 million gross immigrants (and nearly 3 million net immigrants). The motivating factor was also the "pull" of better economic opportunities. The transportation of convicts to Australia was not a major factor in the long run. In addition, the British government facilitated substantial migration of contract workers from South Asia, East Asia, and Pacific Island areas to other areas of the British Empire in Oceania, South Africa, and the Caribbean. Finally, Asiatic Russia was the destination of more than 15 million immigrants over these same decades, as both the tsarist and Soviet governments sought to populate and exploit Siberia and central Asian regions.

SINCE 1960

Since 1960 there has been a significant shift in the direction and magnitudes of migration flows. In the period 1820 to about 1960 migration had been largely from Europe to the Western Hemisphere, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa. After about 1960 the flows shifted to movement from developing regions to the United States and Canada and the more developed regions of Western Europe and Oceania. Much of the migration was temporary. Nonetheless, there was still some substantial movement of population among developed nations. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the loosening of restriction on migration from the former U.S.S.R. and Soviet Bloc nations in Europe, combined with the poor state of the economies in these areas, contributed to a substantial out-migration from Russia and Eastern Europe.

The steady rise in the percent of international migrants is apparent in developed regions (with the former U.S.S.R.), but little change (or even decline) may be seen for developing regions. In some cases the results were quite dramatic. The United States had 12.3 percent foreign-born by 2000, up from 5.2 percent in 1960. Similar results are available for Canada (18.9%, up from 15.4%), Australia (24.6%, up from 16.6%, New Zealand (22.5%, up from 14.1%), and Western Europe (10.3%, up from 4.6%). The process of globalization in recent decades has seen major changes in the origins and magnitudes of population and labor force from lower income to higher income areas. This indicates a strong case for the dominance of the "pull" of economic opportunities. For example, only recently have immigration levels to the United States begun to approach those of the record period 1900 to 1913. The world's stock of human capital is becoming increasingly mobile, and this has had widespread economic, social, and political implications for both sending and receiving areas. Immigrant remittances are now a very important source of foreign exchange earning for many developing economies. The social-support networks in a number of developed societies are being strained. And nativism and calls for immigration restriction are on the rise. Yet, the process seems unlikely to end any time soon, until development disparities between developed and developing nations substantially lessen. Immigration policy in the European Union (EU) has become a controversial matter. There is a common policy for persons entering the EU, but some individual countries still have preferences for individuals from developing nations, which were former colonies. If these former colonies have no arrangement with the EU, then migrants from those countries must remain in the country that granted admission and may not move about the EU freely.

SEE ALSO Capital Flows;Laborers, Coerced;Laborers, Contract;Labor, Types of.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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Michael R. Haines