Kremlinology

views updated

KREMLINOLOGY

Close analysis of the tense power struggles among the Soviet leadership. A term coined during the last days of the Stalin regime with the onset of the Cold War.

Usually more than just a study of contending personalities, or a "who-whom" (who is doing what to whom), Kremlinology was an indispensable analysis of Soviet policy alternatives and their implications for the West. It also turned out to be a point of departure for any serious political history, inevitably connected to the ideas that drove the Soviet regime and in the end determined its fate. Western intelligence experts, academics, and journalists all made contributions to this pursuit. Attention was often focused on "protocol evidence," such as the order in which leaders' names might appear on various official lists, or the way they were grouped around the leader in photographs. However, since factional rivalry was usually expressed in ideological pronouncements and debates, the most widely respected practitioners of Kremlinology were emigré writers who had direct experience of the ways of the Soviet communists. The most famous of these was the Menshevik Boris Nikolayevsky. Initially Kremlinologists centered on quarrels among Josef Stalin's subordinates in order to get an idea of his policy alternatives and turns. After Stalin's death, Kremlinology mapped out the succession struggle that occasioned the rise of Nikita Khrushchev. It was again useful in understanding the politics of the Gorbachev reform era and the destruction of Soviet power.

The domestic and foreign policy issues were debated in the ideological language of the first great Soviet succession struggle in the 1920s that brought Stalin from obscurity to supreme power. After his defeat and exile, Leon Trotsky explained Stalin's rise to the Western public as the victory of a narrow insular national Communism, according to the slogan "socialism in one country," over his own internationalist idea of "permanent revolution." Materials from three Trotsky archives in the West later showed these extreme positions to have been less crucial to Stalin's ascent than his complex maneuvers for a centrist position between right and left factions. Trotsky continued to analyze Soviet politics during the Great Purge of 1936–1938 in his Byulleten oppozitsy (Bulletin of the Opposition). This was matched by the commentary of the well-connected Moscow correspondents of the Menshevik Sotsialistichesky vestnik (Socialist Courier).

For various reasons, the émigré writings had to be read with caution. Often they were employed to establish a position in the debate over the Russian Question: What is the nature of the Soviet regime, and has it betrayed the revolution? In 1936 Nikolayevsky published the Letter of an Old Bolshevik, presumably the confessions of Nikolai Bukharin interviewed in Paris. It contained important information indicating the origins of Stalin's purges in a 1932 dispute over the anti-Stalin platform document of Mikhail Ryutin. However, the Letter was dramatized and embellished by Nikolayevsky's gleanings from other sources. Some historians later rejected it as spurious and even denied the existence of a Ryutin Program. But during Mikhail Gorbachev's glasnost campaign the full text was published, reading quite as Nikolayevsky had described it.

In Stalin's last days, Nikolayevsky tried to interpret the antagonism between Leningrad chief Andrei Zhdanov and Stalin's protégé Georgy Malenkov by linking Zhdanov to Tito and the Yugoslav Communists and Malenkov to Mao and the Chinese. Later studies bore this out. The rise of Khrushchev as successor to Stalin was charted by Boris Meissner, Myron Rush, Wolfgang Leonhard, and Robert Conquest. Michel Tatu described Khrushchev's fall in 1964 and the central role played by Mikhail Suslov, the ideological secretary.

Suslov loomed large in Soviet politics from this point until his death at the end of the Brezhnev regime in 1982. The ideological post was the center of gravity for a regime of collective leadership under the rubric of "stabilization of cadres." That Suslov died a few months before Brezhnev in 1982 meant he could not oversee the succession in the interests of the Kremlin gerontocracy. The result was a thorough housecleaning by Yuri Andropov in his brief tenure. An even more thorough shakeup by Mikhail Gorbachev followed. This would have been unlikely had Suslov lived.

In defense of the Suslov pattern of collective leadership, the Politburo tried its best to shore up Yegor Ligachev in the ideological post as a limit on Gorbachev. But Gorbachev managed to destroy all the party's fetters on his power by 1989, just as he lost the East European bloc. After that, he behaved like a conscious student of Soviet succession and proclaimed himself a centrist, balancing between the radical Boris Yeltsin and the weakened consolidation faction of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU). The last stand of the latter was the attempted putsch of August 1991, the failure of which left Gorbachev alone with a vengeful Yeltsin.

Commentary on the Yeltsin leadership of post-Soviet Russia echoed some themes of Kremlinology, especially in analysis of the power of the Yeltsin group ("The Family") and its relation to well-heeled post-Soviet tycoons ("The Oligarchs"). However, power in the Kremlin could no longer be read in Communist ideological language and had to be studied as with any other state. Kremlinology, or analysis of Soviet power struggles, nevertheless retains its value for political historians who can take note of a recurrent programmatic alternance between a leftist Leningrad tendency and a rightist Moscow line. The centrist who defeated the others by timely turns was able to triumph in the three great Soviet succession struggles.

See also: historiography; stalin, josef vissarionovich; suslov, mikhail andreyevich; united states, relations with