Deterrence

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Deterrence

Deterrence is a military strategy in which one actor attempts to prevent an action by another actor by means of threatening punishment if the action is undertaken. Deterrence is, in essence, a threat to use force in response to a specific behavior. While deterrence is an inherently defensive strategy, it does not involve defense; that is, the deterring party does not actively protect its assets or try to prevent its opponent from taking the action, but rather threatens the use of violence to convince the opponent not to act in the first place.

THEORETICAL UNDERPINNINGS

Deterrence can best be understood with reference to the “3 Cs”: capability, communication, and credibility. Any deterrent threat must meet all three criteria to succeed. Capability refers to whether the actor issuing the deterrent threat is capable of carrying out the threat. Thus, the ability to successfully deter depends to some degree on the power of the deterring actor. Capability is, generally, the most straightforward category, as states typically match deterrent threats to their extant military capabilities. States can, however, dissemble by threatening actions requiring capabilities that they do not have, or by claiming capabilities that they do not possess, though subterfuge and secrecy tend to undermine the efficacy of a deterrent threat.

In order for deterrence to work, a state must communicate its threats. If a state does not know that an action is proscribed, it cannot be deterred from taking that action. Communication is therefore essential if states are to know what actions they are not supposed to take, as well as what will happen if the action is taken. Thus, good lines of communication are crucial. The “hot line” between the Soviet Union and the United States during the cold war served this function well. With deterrence, the goal is to avoid armed conflict and communication is vital to create boundaries and reveal expectations.

The final C, credibility, is perhaps the most difficult criterion to meet. Deterrence is, in a sense, a fundamentally irrational action, because the threat is carried out after the violation occurs. Once the forbidden action is taken, it does not necessarily make sense to carry out the threat that was intended to deter that action in the first place. This is similar to the economic theory of “sunk costs,” in which costs that have already been incurred should not be included in decisions about future behaviors. States have to work very hard at establishing their credibility, especially in situations of extended deterrence (explained below), and they often try to “tie their hands” meaning the decision to carry out the deterrent threat is made automatically. During the cold war, the U.S. soldiers stationed in West Germany had no chance of repelling a Soviet invasion of Western Europe. Instead, the troops served as a “tripwire,” ensuring Americans would be killed in any Soviet invasion and increasing the odds that the U.S. would come to the defense of Western Europe, making more credible the American deterrent threat.

TYPES OF DETERRENCE

There are two fundamental types of deterrence: central and extended. Central deterrence occurs when a state attempts to deter attacks against itself, its nationals, or other intrinsic assets. In extended deterrence, a state attempts to prevent attacks against an ally or another third party. Credibility is usually easier to establish with central deterrence, because the need to develop a reputation for protecting one’s own assets is vital to the strength of a state. Credibility is much more difficult to build in extended deterrence, because it is harder for the deterring state to risk war to protect an ally.

Deterrence can also be broken down into two strategic categories: denial and punishment. In a denial strategy, also known as counterforce deterrence, the military deterrence is targeted at the enemy’s military and political assets, such as military bases, command and control assets, and governmental facilities. The purpose of the deterrent is, therefore, to prevent the enemy from achieving whatever goal it seeks with the use of force. If the opponent correctly reads the deterrent threat as sufficiently reducing the likelihood of obtaining the desired outcome, then the action will not be taken and deterrence will succeed. Flexible response, discussed below, is an example of denial strategy.

In punishment, or countervalue, deterrence, the deterrent threat is targeted at the enemy’s “soft” targets, such as population centers or industrial capabilities. The aim of punishment deterrence is to threaten such a high cost to the fabric of the opponent’s society that the action in question will no longer be worth the cost. Both massive retaliation and mutual assured destruction are illustrations of punishment strategies.

DETERRENCE STRATEGIES

While deterrence can be based on both nuclear and conventional forces, deterrence strategy can best be demonstrated by examining the evolution of U.S. nuclear strategy over time. The first formulation of nuclear deterrence was “massive retaliation,” a punishment strategy created by John Foster Dulles, the U.S. secretary of state under President Dwight Eisenhower. Here, the United States reserved the right to respond to any military provocation with nuclear weapons, and particularly with much greater force than the original attack. The United States was thus relying on its superior nuclear forces to deter the numerically superior Soviet Union from invading Western Europe. The main problem was the inability to deal with minor threats. As the Soviet nuclear arsenal became more capable of matching that of the United States, massive retaliation was replaced, under the Kennedy Administration, with “flexible response,” a denial strategy that created a menu of responses that could be tailored to a specific action. The intent was to make the threatened use of nuclear weapons more credible. However, it was determined that any use of nuclear weapons could escalate into large-scale nuclear exchanges, and flexible response was discarded and replaced with “mutual assured destruction” or MAD. This was a punishment strategy that relied on the ability of both nations to completely destroy each other.

Deterrence is a critical part of the strategic arsenal of countries because all nations usually seek to avoid armed conflict and war. The need to maintain a strong deterrent posture can also inhibit states from achieving other political goals. For example, there was great resistance to the Israeli withdrawals from Lebanon in 2000 and from Gaza in 2005 because of fears that these actions would undermine Israeli deterrence capabilities. However, the years since 1950 have been something of a triumph for deterrence theory, and for nuclear deterrence in particular, as a conflict between the major powers has been avoided.

SEE ALSO Deterrence, Mutual; Military; Violence