Probabilistic Forecasting of (Severe) Thunderstorms in the Netherlands Using Model Output Statistics

Weather and Forecasting | April 1, 2005| | Copyright

ABSTRACT

The derivation and verification of logistic regression equations for the (conditional) probability of (severe) thunderstorms in the warm half-year (from mid-April to mid-October) in the Netherlands is described. For 12 regions of about 90 km × 80 km each, and for projections out to 48 h in advance (with 6-h periods), these equations have been derived using model output statistics (MOS). As a source for the predictands, lightning data from the Surveillance et d'Alerte Foudre par Interférométrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR) network have been used. The potential predictor dataset mainly ...

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