Extended-range probability forecasts based on dynamical model output

From: Weather and Forecasting | Date: December 1, 1998| Author: | Copyright information

ABSTRACT

A probability forecast has advantages over a deterministic forecast as the former offers information about the probabilities of various possible future states of the atmosphere. As physics-based numerical models find their success in modern weather forecasting, an important task is to convert a model forecast, usually deterministic, into a probability forecast. This study explores methods to do such a conversion for NCEP's operational 500mb-height forecast and the discussion is extended to ensemble forecasting. Compared with traditional modelbased statistical forecast methods such ...

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