The predictability of soil moisture and near-surface temperature in hindcasts of the NCEP seasonal forecast model

From: Journal of Climate | Date: February 1, 2003| Author: Kanamitsu, Masao; Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; Schemm, Jae; Ebisuzaki, Wesley | Copyright information

ABSTRACT

Using the NCEP-DOE reanalysis (R-2) soil wetness and the NCEP Seasonal Forecast System, seasonal predictability of the soil moisture and near-surface temperature, and the role of land surface initial conditions are examined. Two sets of forecasts were made, one starting from climatological soil moisture as initial condition and the other from R-2 soil moisture analysis. Each set consisted of 10-member ensemble runs of 7-month duration. Initial conditions were taken from the f...

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