Sensitivity of Several Performance Measures to Displacement Error, Bias, and Event Frequency

From: Weather and Forecasting | Date: August 1, 2006| Author: | Copyright information

ABSTRACT

The sensitivity of various accuracy measures to displacement error, bias, and event frequency is analyzed for a simple hypothetical forecasting situation. Each measure is found to be sensitive to displacement error and bias, but probability of detection and threat score do not change as a function of event frequency. On the other hand, equitable threat score, true skill statistic, and odds ratio skill score behaved differently with changing event frequency. A newly devised measure, here called the bias-adjusted threat score, does not change with varying event frequency and is ...

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