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Tactical asset allocation and presidential elections
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Abstract
Over the past 75 years, common stocks performed better under Democrats, while U.S. government bonds and Treasury (T) bills performed better under Republicans. Using a mean-variance framework, we find that Democrats provide better risk-reward opportunities for portfolios weighted toward stocks, while Republicans provide better tradeoffs for portfolios weighted toward government bonds and T-bills. More recently, Republicans provide better portfolio opportunities than Democrats f...
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