THREE FORECASTS OF HARD TIMES FOR THE UNITED STATES THE APPETIZERS ON TODAY'S MENU CONSIST OF ANONYMOUS OBSERVATIONS FROM THREE GLOOM-AND-DOOM MERCHANTS WHO ARE EXPERTS IN WHAT THEY DO. THEY FORESEE HARD TIMES, DESPITE THE SOARING STOCK MARKET AND THE MISTY PROMISES EMANATING FROM THE POTOMAC ABOUT HOW THE GOVERNMENT IS SERIOUS ABOUT THE DEFICIT, TRADE, COMPETITIVENESS AND ALL THAT STUFF. EXPERT NO. 1, A BOSTON BANKER, PREDICTS THAT PAUL VOLCKER WILL RESIGN AS FEDERAL RESERVE CHIEF IN AUGUST TO RUN A FINANCIAL-SERVICES FIRM. HIS SUCCESSOR WILL BE GERALD CORRIGAN, THE HARD-BITTEN CHIEF OF THE NEW YORK FED, THAT TRAINING-GROUND FOR FEDERAL RESERVE POOH-BAHS. VOLCKER WILL LEAVE AS HIS TWO BIGGEST PROBLEMS THE IMMINENT DEMISE OF A NUMBER OF LARGE BANKS IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, AND THE INSOLUBLE DEBT PROBLEM OF LATIN AMERICAN NATIONS. (IT'S INSOLUBLE IN THE SENSE THAT THE NATIONS SIMPLY CAN'T AFFORD TO PAY BACK WHAT THEY OWE AT CURRENT RATES OF INTEREST.) THIS PROBLEM FINDS A LOT OF US BANKS -- NOT JUST THE BIG ONES, BUT EVEN SOME SMALL-TO-MIDDLING ONES THAT GOT SUCKERED IN -- CARRYING THE CAN FOR ALL THE DAMAGE DONE IN THE PAST DECADE BY INFLATION, CURRENCY SWINGS, DEVALUATIONS AND OIL-PRICE GYRATIONS. EXPERT NO. 2, THE HEAD OF THE OVERSEAS OPERATIONS OF ONE OF OUR LARGEST FINANCIAL FIRMS, MAKES THESE OBSERVATIONS: STOCK MARKET: ''I'M NOT IN THE MARKET AT ALL. I'M IN CURRENCIES. I MADE 40 PERCENT ON CURRENCY LAST YEAR; I DON'T KNOW ANYONE WHO MADE 40 PERCENT IN THE MARKET.'' TRADE: THE BIG PROTECTIONIST BATTLE LOOMING IN CONGRESS IS WINDOW DRESSING. THE FACT IS, MEASURED BY GNP, THE FIFTH-LARGEST ECONOMY IN THE WORLD IS THE COMBINED OFFSHORE ECONOMIES OF US MULTINATIONALS, INCLUDING THE BIG 3 CAR COMPANIES. THE MULTINATIONALS CAN PLAY EITHER SIDE OF THE PROTECTIONIST GAME; THEY WON'T GET HURT NO MATTER WHO WINS. HIGH TECH: THE SO-CALLED INFORMATION AGE IS ALREADY OVER -- AT LEAST THE PORTION THAT WAS TO RESCUE THE US ECONOMY FROM THE DEMISE OF MANUFACTURING IS OVER. HIGH-PRICED SOFTWARE IS HEADING OVERSEAS, WHERE KEYPUNCHERS, PROGRAMMERS, EVEN PHDS, WORK LOTS CHEAPER THAN THEY DO HERE. THOSE NIMBLE-FINGERED ASIANS WHO TOOK OUR JOBS MAKING SHOES, AND THEN SHIRTS, ARE NOW COMFORTABLE WORKING COMPUTERS. MORE AND MORE US BANKS AND FINANCIAL HOUSES ARE SHIPPING THEIR PAPER WORK ABROAD TO HAVE IT DONE CHEAPER, FASTER, AND NONUNION. SERVICE: ''YOU GO INTO A SHOP ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD, AND INVARIABLY YOU GET BETTER SERVICE THAN YOU DO HERE. SO WHOEVER SAYS THE SO-CALLED 'SERVICE ECONOMY' IS GOING TO SAVE AMERICA'S STANDARD OF LIVING IS KIDDING HIMSELF.'' CROP EXPORTS: THE DAYS (AS RECENTLY AS FIVE YEARS AGO) WHEN AMERICA SHIPPED ONE-THIRD OF OUR CROPS ABROAD ARE OVER. THE GREEN REVOLUTION MEANS PREVIOUS CUSTOMERS FOR OUR CATTLE AND GRAIN ARE NOW OUR COMPETITORS -- PERMANENTLY. LATIN AMERICAN DEBT CRISIS: AFTER ALL THE POSTURING, ALL THE DEBT WILL BE REFINANCED, 40 YEARS AT 4.5 PERCENT, BOOM. EXPERT NO. 3, A HOUSING DEVELOPER WITH A TRACK RECORD IN NEW ENGLAND, IS TRYING TO LAUNCH A FACTORY TO BUILD MODULAR HOUSING UNITS, BASED ON TECHNOLOGY AND MACHINERY DEVELOPED IN OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND ABROAD. HIS BIGGEST WORRY IS THE LABOR FORCE. CAN HE GET PEOPLE TO WIELD TOOLS, WITH SKILL LEVELS COMPARABLE TO WORKERS OUTSIDE NEW ENGLAND, AND GIVE HIM HIGH QUALITY AND HASSLE-FREE PRODUCTIVITY? DO NEW ENGLANDERS STILL WANT TO WORK AS HARD OR HARDER THAN WORKERS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, OR THE WORLD? WHAT DOES IT MEAN, WHEN THE MCDONALD'S RESTAURANT IN QUINCY HAS TO ADVERTISE FOR NIGHT WORKERS AT $5.25 AND $6 AN HOUR, IN A TOWN WHERE 4,000 $17-AN-HOUR SHIPBUILDERS ARE LAID OFF BY GENERAL DYNAMICS BECAUSE THEIR SHIPS COST TOO MUCH COMPARED WITH SHIPS BUILT IN SOUTH KOREA BY MEN EARNING $2 AN HOUR? IT MEANS THAT WE ARE IN A WORLD ECONOMY, NOT AN AMERICAN ECONOMY. IT MEANS THAT, NO MATTER HOW PAINFUL IT IS TO HEAR IT, MILLIONS OF AMERICANS ARE BEING PAID AT HIGHER RATES THAN FOREIGNERS WILLING TO DO THE SAME WORK -- OR MORE -- CHEAPER. IT MEANS THAT OUR STANDARD OF LIVING AS A NATION IS BEING ERODED SHARPLY BY THE HUGE FOREIGN DEBT BEING RUN UP BY THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION. OUR CHILDREN AND THEIR CHILDREN WILL HAVE TO REPAY ALL THE MONEY OUR GOVERNMENT, IN EFFECT, BORROWS FROM FOREIGNERS. IT MEANS THAT THE REST OF THE WORLD IS CATCHING UP TO US, AND THAT SOME ARE PASSING US. OUR CHILDREN, LIKE THE CURRENT GENERATION OF BRITONS, ARE GOING TO WONDER: HOW DID OUR PARENTS ALLOW US TO BECOME A SECOND-RATE ECONOMIC POWER?