Political Futures Markets Make the Call in Presidential Election

From: Daily News | Date: November 3, 2004| Author: | Copyright information

NEW YORK (HedgeWorld.com) - By and large, electronic trading of political futures instruments accurately predicted the outcome of the 2004 U.S. Presidential election, bolstering the argument that these markets have an edge over polls.

The winner-takes-all market run by the University of Iowa School of Business, one of several run by the school, showed Bush substantially ahead of Kerry throughout September and October. The lead narrowed after the debates but never reversed during the two months.

In terms of the aggregate probability of winning, calculated from the prices of two Republican ...

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