NATIONAL POLITICS: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION RACE 1980

Carter's Public Opinion Ratings

In July 1979 President Jimmy Carter's approval rating reached a low point of 26 percent, with the American public particularly unhappy with his handling of domestic issues such as inflation, unemployment, high interest rates, and a major oil shortage. After a ten-day conference at Camp David, Carter managed to cloak a good energy proposal in a speech that preached to the American people about a national "crisis in confidence" and offered a personal mea culpa for his concerns having "become increasingly narrow, focused more and more on what the isolated world of Washington thinks is important." His subsequent reshuffling of his cabinet and the forced resignations of five advisers only deepened the impression among many Americans that the true "crisis of confidence" belonged to their president, whose administration seemed incompetent to govern the nation. Democrats overwhelmingly favored Sen. Edward M. Kennedy as their candidate in the 1980 presidential election, and there was speculation that the president was incapable of winning renomination.

Rallying Round the Flag

By October Carter's popularity had climbed to a meager 33 percent, and his party still favored Kennedy by a margin of 2-1. Then, on 4 November 1979—exactly one year before the 1980 elections—Iranian militants seized the American embassy in Tehran and held more than sixty Americans hostage, Public-opinion polls began to exhibit the "rally round the flag" phenomenon that historically has followed any sort of American foreign-policy crisis: no matter how the president acts, or how successful or unsuccessful his response, his popularity increases. Carter's overall approval rating began climbing, reaching 53 percent by February 1980. Yet in the same month—with approval of his Iran policy at 63 percent—only 48 percent approved of his handling of foreign policy in general, and only 26 percent liked his economic policy.

Democratic Challengers

Gov. Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown Jr. of California was the first Democrat to challenge the president. Having made an impressive showing after entering the 1976 presidential race late and having easily won reelection in the 1978 California gubernatorial race, Brown entered the 1980 nomination contest with high hopes. After polls repeatedly showed him the Democrat most likely to win the election, Kennedy also decided to run and scheduled the formal announcement of his candidacy for 8 November 1979—a date that turned out to be four days after the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran.

Carter Surges Forward

Riding the crest of his popularity—fueled by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in late December 1979 as well as the hostage crisis—Carter employed the "rose garden" strategy of most incumbent chief executives: he stayed in the White House and acted presidential. By refusing to debate Kennedy and Brown on television he created the impression that he was too involved in crucial decision making to engage in "mere politics," and he deprived his opponents of free media exposure. Many of his public responses to crises were timed to have optimal impact on the nomination process. On the Sunday before the Iowa caucuses (21 January 1980) he proposed a boycott of the summer 1980 Olympic Games in Moscow. Just before the Illinois primary (18 March), in which Kennedy was expected to make a strong showing, the president threatened to cancel the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT II) unless the Soviet Union withdrew its troops from Afghanistan. On the day before the crucial 1 April Wisconsin primary, the United States set a deadline for the release of the hostages in Iran, and just as the polls opened the next morning Carter went on television to announce what appeared to be a breakthrough in hostage negotiations. While many of the president's decisions later hurt his chances for reelection, during the early months of 1980 a combination of luck and good timing enhanced his image as an experienced, level-headed decision maker.

Kennedy and the Character Issue

Having decided to wait until late 1979 to announce his candidacy, Kennedy inadvertently found himself challenging an incumbent president just as a major foreign-policy crisis had created the usual calls for solidarity behind the chief executive. At this point in the hostage situation criticism of Carter was widely viewed as a threat to national unity. As Carter's approval rating rose, Kennedy's popularity declined. In February 1980, 58 percent of the respondents to a CBS News/New York Times poll said they had a favorable opinion of Carter while 32 percent had an unfavorable opinion. Kennedy's numbers were reversed: 25 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable. The reason for his decline in the polls was not just the "rally round the flag" phenomenon. Before Kennedy announced his candidacy the majority of the American public seemed to have forgotten or to no longer be concerned about a fatal automobile accident in summer 1969 that had called into question the senator's morality, honesty, and ability to handle crises. After his announcement, however, the incident once again became an issue.

The Chappaquiddick Incident

In July 1969 Kennedy and a young aide, Mary Jo Kopechne, left a party on Chappaquiddick Island, Massachusetts, in Kennedy's car, which Kennedy then accidentally drove off a bridge. He managed to escape, but he was unable to free Kopechne, who drowned. Kennedy's indecisive actions in seeking help for her and his failure to report the accident until the next morning led to charges that he had been more concerned about his political image than saving a human life, to suggestions that he lacked the character and emotional stability to deal with the pressures of the presidency, and to speculation about where the married senator and his pretty, young assistant had been headed.

Issues Take Second Place

As the primary season began, Kennedy offered liberal alternatives to the president's largely unsuccessful attempts to improve the economy, attempting to portray himself as a Democrat in the tradition of Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy. The Massachusetts senator proposed wage and price controls, national health insurance, and a jobs program while opposing Carter's plan to end price controls on oil and natural gas. Polls taken during the Democratic primaries showed that voters who said they cast their ballots based on the candidates' stands on the issues tended to prefer Kennedy, but those who based their choices on their perceptions of the candidates' personal integrity overwhelmingly voted for Carter. In February 1980 one out of every ten Democrats said they disliked Kennedy because of the Chappaquiddick incident. The Carter campaign played on this sentiment by running a television advertisement in which people interviewed "on the street" in Philadelphia made statements such as "I don't think he [Kennedy] can deal with a crisis," and "I trust Carter more than Kennedy."

The Search for Delegates

Carter won 58 percent of the delegates in the Iowa caucuses while 30 percent supported Kennedy, and Brown ran a distant third. Carter came in first in New Hampshire, though with less than half of the total Democratic votes cast (47.1), and he went on to win in Vermont (4 March); Alabama, Florida, and Georgia (11 March); and Puerto Rico (16 March), while preparing for a big showdown with Kennedy in Illinois (18 March). The Massachusetts senator won the primary in his home state (4 March) and arrived in Illinois with the endorsement of Mayor Jane Byrne of Chicago and the support of the powerful Chicago Democratic "machine." Given Kennedy's popularity with urban, industrial, ethnic, and Catholic voters, he should have done well in Illinois, but Carter's victory there was overwhelming. After this primary he had a quarter of the votes he needed to win the nomination. The media predicted that the president's renomination was assured, even after Kennedy upset him in New York and Connecticut on 25 March. The next big test was in Wisconsin (1 April), where Carter stopped Kennedy's momentum by winning with 56.2 percent of the vote. Brown, who had won only 10 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, had lost federal campaign funding because of his low standing and had limited his campaigning to one last attempt in Wisconsin. After coming in a distant third in that primary, he dropped out of the race.

A Flip-Flop in Public Opinion

Just as the president had the nomination nearly wrapped up, public opinion began to turn against him. In March 49 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of the public overall had a favorable opinion of Carter. In April those numbers stood at 52 percent and 43 percent, and by June they had dropped to 43 percent and 33 percent. Carter's handling of the economy had never been popular, and in this three-month period the public began questioning his foreign-policy decisions as well. The Soviets showed no sign of leaving Afghanistan, despite Carter's cancellation of grain sales to the Soviet Union, which hurt American farmers, and his threats to renounce SALT II, which worsened U.S.-Soviet relations just as the Cold War had seemed ready to thaw. In April the U.S. Olympic Committee, under pressure from the White House, voted to boycott the Moscow Olympics, but many allies of the United States refused to follow suit, and the boycott irritated the American people far more than it hurt the Russians. The focal point for the public's negative perception of the president was the Iran hostage situation. On 12 February Carter had vowed to the world, "I am not going to resume business-as-usual as a partisan campaigner out on the campaign trail until our hostages are back here—free and at home." At the time this stand bolstered his image as a statesman, but by late April—after negotiations and diplomatic maneuvering had come to naught and an armed attempt to free the hostages had failed miserably—the president began to seem like a prisoner in his own house, an inept statesman held hostage by his own promise.

Kennedy Wins Too Little Too Late

During the same three-month period, as Carter's popularity was waning, Kennedy's favorable rating with the public overall improved from 25 percent in March to 29 percent in June, and among Democrats it climbed from 36 percent to 40 percent, bringing him almost even with the president. Kennedy scored upset victories in the Pennsylvania primary (22 April) and the Michigan party caucuses, and he won five of the eight primaries held on 3 June, including those in the delegate-rich states of California and New Jersey. Yet a quarter of the Democrats in New Jersey and 40 percent in California said they voted for "the lesser of the evils." When Kennedy won he won narrowly, and Carter had continued winning primaries in big states such as Texas (3 May) and Ohio (3 June) as well as in many smaller states, especially in the South. In general he had also fared better than Kennedy in states where delegates were chosen in party caucuses.

Fallout from "Billygate."

With more than enough votes to win the nomination, Carter still had to contend with his slipping approval rating. During the month before the Democratic National Convention, the president's prestige took another blow. It was revealed that his brother, Billy Carter, who had been acting as an intermediary between the United States and Libya in an effort to gain the release of the Iran hostages, had taken a $220,000 loan from the Libyan government. The president told the Senate subcommittee formed to investigate his brother's dealings that Billy Carter had not influenced governmental policy toward Libya, and the subcommittee agreed, while also concluding that Billy Carter had done nothing illegal. Yet the senators also faulted the president—along with some members of his cabinet, family, and staff—for using poor judgment.

A Divided Convention

When the Democratic National Convention opened in New York City on 11 August, 1,981.1 delegates were pledged to President Carter, 315 more than he needed for the nomination; 1,225.8 were pledged to Senator Kennedy, while 122.1 were uncommitted and 2 were committed to other candidates. Amid widespread speculation that voters in the early primaries would have voted differently if they had cast their ballots in June or July, Kennedy launched a last-ditch effort to win the nomination. Backed by as many as fifty Democratic congressmen, he and other Carter opponents tried to change the convention rule that bound delegates on the first ballot to vote for the candidate to whom they were pledged when they were elected. The day before the convention opened, Kennedy strategists believed they were within fifty to one hundred votes of success, but when the convention voted on 11 August, they lost by 545.84. (Only about 165 Carter delegates voted with them.) Bowing to the inevitable, Kennedy announced that he would not allow his name to be placed in nomination, but, he vowed, "the efforts for Democratic principles must and will continue."

The Platform Wars

The Kennedy and Carter camps proceeded to face off on writing the party platform, carrying more than twenty unresolved issues to the convention floor, where heated debates illustrated deep divisions in the party. After the delegates had voted, the president found himself running on a platform that was more liberal than his own views. For example, the platform called for federal abortion funding, which Carter opposed while supporting legal abortion. He also favored ratification of the Equal Rights Amendment but stopped short of agreeing with the plank denying party support to candidates who opposed it. Kennedy forces also did well on issues related to the economy, winning three of four challenges to Carter platform proposals. They succeeded in gaining approval for a plank calling for a $12 billion jobs program, which Carter accepted in principle without committing himself to budgeting a specific amount of money for it. For many delegates and television viewers Kennedy's 12 August speech in support of his economic proposals was the most exciting event of the convention.

Carter's Hollow Victory

The next night Carter was renominated, winning 2,123 votes to 1,150.5 for Kennedy. In his acceptance speech the president appealed directly for Kennedy's support and called for party unity, but the delegates' thunderous applause was interrupted by loud boos when he mentioned his call for reinstating the military draft (a policy given only tepid support in the platform). Vice President Walter Mondale, accepting his renomination, was nearly alone in expressing unequivocal admiration for the president's record.