National Politics: Republican Nomination Race 1980

NATIONAL POLITICS: REPUBLICAN NOMINATION RACE 1980

Reagan Emerges Early

Former California governor Ronald Reagan quickly became the front-runner in a crowded pack of Republican presidential hopefuls that also included Sen. Howard H. Baker Jr. of Tennessee, former UN ambassador and CIA head George Bush of Texas, Congressman John B. Anderson of Illinois, former Texas governor John B. Connally, and Sen. Robert J. Dole of Kansas. After beating Reagan by 33,530 to 31,348 votes in the Iowa precinct caucuses on 21 January 1980, Bush claimed to have the "Big Mo" (momentum) in his favor, but his campaign stalled in New Hampshire. He hurt his image when he supported the Nashua Telegraph plan to limit the debate it sponsored to the two front-runners, believing quite rightly that it was not to his advantage to split his targets and appear to be at odds with other moderates. Also realizing the problems such a debate would cause Bush, Reagan invited the others to join in the debate, creating the image of Bush as an elitist and of himself as a man of the people. Reagan beat Bush by a 2-1 margin in the 26 February primary. Bush's subsequent victories over Reagan in Massachusetts (4 March), Connecticut (25 March), Pennsylvania (22 April), and Michigan (20 May) were overshadowed by Reagan wins in twenty-eight of the thirty-two primaries he entered. (Bush also won in the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, where Reagan's name was not on the ballot.) By 20 May Reagan had more than enough delegates to win the Republican nomination.

Reagan's Preparations for Victory

In 1976, after failing for a second time to win his party's presidential nomination, conservative Republican Ronald Reagan had begun almost immediately to plan for 1980. From 1977 until he announced his candidacy in November 1979, he earned more than $100,000 a year from taped radio editorials and newspaper columns while delivering speeches all across the United States. He also established a political action committee (PAC), Citizens for the Republic, which contributed more that $600,000 to Republican candidates in the 1978 elections. Other Republicans had PACs as well, but Reagan's PAC spent more money, offering support to 234 House candidates, 25 Senate candidates, and 19 gubernatorial hopefuls—as well as 122 other Republicans running for state and local offices. In 1980 Reagan was able to call in a large number of political IOUS, thereby demonstrating a far broader base of support than he had in his two earlier tries for the presidential nomination.

Moderates Cancel Each Other Out

The crowded field of would-be nominees hurt Bush, who found himself competing with Anderson and Baker for the votes of Republican moderates. Many Republicans did not share Reagan's conservative social views, nor were they sure about his faith in supply-side economics: the theory that substantial tax cuts will result in increased economic activity that will generate sufficient revenue to replace the money lost by the tax cuts. Bush labeled this theory "voodoo economics" and charged (as President Jimmy Carter would later) that a massive tax cut would stimulate inflation not reduce it. Yet because moderate voting was split, Reagan forged ahead in the Republican nomination race and stayed there—even after Baker dropped out of the race on 5 March, after four quick defeats.

Ford Considers Running

As Reagan gained momentum, former president Gerald R. Ford toyed with the idea of challenging him, asserting on 2 March that "a very conservative Republican can't win a national election." A CBS News/New York Times poll for 12-15 March showed that Republicans preferred Ford to Reagan by 52 to 27 percent and that Ford was the only Republican all voters favored over President Jimmy Carter (47 to 42 percent). Yet on 15 March Ford withdrew from the race.

Reagan's Conservative Opponents Falter

Meanwhile Reagan's fellow conservatives were falling by the wayside. Connally of Texas had stayed out of the New England primaries to concentrate on South Carolina, where he hoped for strong support from fellow southerners, but he came in a distant second when that state held its primary on 8 March, earning less than 30 percent of the vote to 54.7 percent for Reagan. Connally dropped out the race the next day. Dole, who had never managed to capture Republican voters' imaginations, announced his departure from the race on 15 March.

The Illinois Primary

The 18 March primary in Anderson's home state was a crucial test for Reagan. Anderson, considered a liberal Republican because he favored abortion rights and opposed increased defense spending, hoped to attract crossover votes from liberal Democrats. Yet Reagan's appeal among conservative Democrats and independents was also strong. He benefited from their support, defeating Anderson by a 4-3 margin. Bush finished third.

The Field Narrows to One

After coming in second to Reagan again in Wisconsin (1 April), Anderson announced on 24 April that he would withdraw from the Republican nomination race and become an independent candidate for president. On 20 May Reagan won the Oregon primary, gaining the votes he needed for the nomination. In addition to coming in first in twenty-eight of thirty-two primaries, he won nearly 400 of the 478 delegates elected by party caucuses. Bush officially dropped out of the race on 26 May.

The Republican National Convention

When the Republicans met in Detroit on 14-17 July, Reagan won 1,939 of 1,994 votes (97 percent) on the first ballot. Anderson was a distant second with 37 votes, while 13 of the 18 remaining votes went to Bush. Moderate and conservative Republicans compromised to give Reagan a party platform he and they could live with, though no one was entirely happy with it. It took Reagan's position against renewing the peacetime military draft (though many delegates favored it), and it took no stand on the Equal Rights Amendment (which Reagan opposed), becoming the first Republican platform since 1940 not to favor such an amendment. The platform also included planks calling for tax cuts and less governmental regulation—policy statements on which most of the party agreed. At the same time it took Reagan's hard-line, conservative positions on two major issues, calling for a constitutional amendment to outlaw abortion and for a massive increase in defense spending.

The Vice Presidential Candidate

The only suspense at the convention was over Reagan's choice of a running mate. Many Republicans wanted Ford, who had suggested in two television interviews that he would accept if Reagan met certain unspecified conditions. It later became known that the former president wanted clearly defined responsibilities that would make him virtually a copresident. Although the two men nearly reached an agreement, Reagan finally decided that he could not accede to all Ford's demands. He offered Ford the second spot on the ticket anyway, but Ford refused it. Reagan then turned to Bush, who offered political and geographical balance to the ticket. Bush accepted despite clear differences of opinion with Reagan. Unlike his running mate, Bush supported the Equal Rights Amendment and opposed a constitutional amendment outlawing abortion (while sharing Reagan's stand against publicly funded abortions). Bush was also less doctrinaire than Reagan on issues involving the Soviet Union, and he had called Reagan's tax-cut proposal inflationary, while favoring a smaller cut. Emphasizing his "common ground" with Reagan, Bush vowed, "I'm not going to get nickeled and dimed to death" over differences. In his acceptance speech Reagan reached out to mainstream Republicans, as well as deliberately appealing to Democratic voters such as blacks and union members.