Timing is all: elections and the duration of United States business cycles.(duration analysis shows elections hold the effect of duration dependence constant)

From: Journal of Money, Credit & Banking | Date: February 1, 1996| Author: Klein, Michael W. | Copyright information

This paper presents a new method for empirically testing predictions of various political business cycle theories by using duration analysis. We estimate the effect of presidential elections and their outcomes on the likelihood of the occurrence of business-cycle turning points in the United States for the period from 1855 to the present as well as for subperiods representing the post-World War I and post-World War II eras. We find significant evidence that political events increase the likel...

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