A spokesman for Muqtada al-Sadr said on Feb 7 that the radical Shi'ite theologian had called on his followers to continue observing a unilateral ceasefire that is believed to be a big cause of the recent decline in Iraq's political violence. The ceasefire, in force since August, is set to expire later this month. It remains unclear whether Sadr will extend it. Any decision on the ceasefire would be a turning point in whether Sadr's movement and its associated Mahdi Army militias will focus on peaceful politics or will fight other factions in what some fear could become a Shi'ite civil war. The US military said last week that it expected the ceasefire to be renewed. But many Mahdi Army leaders were said to favour allowing it to lapse, complaining that their cadres had been targeted by the Iraqi security forces associated with the rival Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC). However, Salah al-Ubaidi, a Sadrist spokesman, delivered a statement on Feb 7 in Sadr's name, calling for the ceasefire to be respected unless it was formally lifted. "Any member of the Mahdi Army who conducts violent acts during the ceasefire, the Sadr office declares they will no longer be part of the Mahdi Army", Reuters quoted the statement as saying. Sadr's ceasefire came at the height of the "surge" of US troops, designed to reduce sectarian violence in Baghdad and other urban areas. At the time the Mahdi Army was under heavy military pressure from US and Iraqi government raids targeting its commanders. It also came amid general weariness among the Iraqi population with the sectarian violence for which the Mahdi Army had largely been held responsible. It followed complaints that the militia, which built a strong support base in poor Shi'ite areas by keeping order and organising social projects, was becoming thuggish toward Shi'ite civilians. The US military said attacks in Shi'ite areas had dropped off considerably since the ceasefire, although it added that some "rogue" groups still staged attacks. However, Sadrists say that their members have been subject to harassment and arrest at the hands of police forces in southern provinces such as Diwaniya and Karbala. Ambiguity over the ceasefire may be a way for Sadr to step up the pressure on the Iraqi government and the US military to step back from attacks on his followers. However, he also may fear that he will lose his status as the standard-bearer of Iraqi Shi'ite militancy if he continues to compel his followers not to strike back against what they consider to be SIIC provocation. Question marks over the ceasefire came as the ICG, a Brussels-based think-tank, issued a report recommending that the US military and the Iraqi government tolerate peaceful Sadrist activity to allow Sadr to convert his movement into a "legitimate political movement". The report said that US and Iraqi government forces should "focus on legitimate military targets, including armed groups involved in attacks against civilians", and prohibit Sadrist patrols or checkpoints but should tolerate peaceful Sadrist activities. It also said the US and its Iraqi allies should freeze recruitment into the Shi'ite branches of the awakening councils, a network of US-allied neighbourhood paramilitary groups. Although the 80,000-strong awakening councils are primarily Sunni, they also recruit from Shi'ite tribes. They are perceived by some Sadrists to be allied to the SIIC-led police and, therefore, a threat.