The international community cannot expect Ethiopia to institute democratic reform and weed out its political and socio-economic problems immediately. The entire process of change takes time and withdrawal of the support from the Organization of African Unity (OAU) to Ethiopia would do more harm than good. Essentially, the fear of an armed conflict in Ethiopia is baseless and the presence of organizations such as OAU would be a helpful stabilizing factor in the country.
Addis Ababa is in a unique position in Africa in many ways, even if some sections of the population would claim that Ethiopia is not Africa. That does not alter the fact that the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), rounded by the last emperor, Haile Selassie, many years ago, as a rallying point to foster and promote the end of colonialism in Africa, is situated here. The Economic Commission for Africa, with very different origins and objectives, also has its headquarters in this city. With the addition of many branches of UN organisations, IMF, World Bank, plus more than eighty embassies, this could be seen as a focal point for affairs which affect the whole continent.
In the four years since coming to Addis, from just after the cessation of hostilities, the changes I have witnessed have been little short of dramatic in many areas of great importance. These include the separation of Eritrea as a sovereign state, for long the bete noire of many Ethiopians, especially the devotees of the former emperor. A devaluation of major proportions passed without incident, while today new building, to change the face of the city, proceeds at an extraordinary pace. In keeping with the physical changes, less visible, but of much greater long term importance are the constitutional changes, restructuring of the administrative base, and of the legal framework of the country, with the right of secession in the future for any approved region or faction. These changes will have the most profound effects.
The recent 61st Ordinary Session of the OAU was noted for the major topic of debate, namely the failure of some twenty-eight member states to pay their contributions, a situation which threatens the activities, or even the survival of the organisation. In theory, the dynamism which is necessary to address the colossal problems which the continent faces, should be generated here. In practice, it does not work quite like that, at least for the moment. It may be that the end of colonialism, as evidenced by the appointment of a delegate from South Africa to the OAU, may have played a part in the relatively lethargic performance which the conference produced. But, there may be other forces at work. The central question which affects all activities in Ethiopia at the present time, generating much thought and even more debate, is what will happen in the months ahead?
The present Transitional Government, originally accepted at the end of hostilities as the body responsible for the country's affairs, was given an initial mandate of two years when it took power in July 1991. This was subsequently extended, to culminate in general elections within the next few months. The new constitution, which has occupied much government time and work, has received wide acceptance from the major powers. It is worthy of thought that no African state seems yet to have given its approval. Of course, there is time for that apparent anomaly to be dispelled, in that the constitution was only presented a very short time ago at the Conference of the EPRDF, the ruling political party. In his address to the session. Ato Tamirat Layne, prime minister of Ethiopia, was at pains to affirm Ethiopia's continued commitment to the organisation.
Although there is much criticism of the government here in Addis, especially by those who experienced the smell of power in the past, it must never be lost sight of that, until now, no semblance of democracy or of representative government, has ever existed in Ethiopia. It is also the case that the end of hostilities in Ethiopia, the first period of peace for more than thirty years, is an achievement which is not replicated in many other states which send representatives to Addis Ababa.
The complexities of Ethiopian politics defy description in a short article. With twenty-eight different groups, which together speak for over two hundred organisations, having representation, the present form of legislative assembly could not be held to be unrepresentative, as its opponents claim. Although there are three major groupings, coalition in some form or another is a certain outcome of the forthcoming election, which is thereby guaranteed to produce the first elected representative governing body in the country's history. This being the case, it is remarkable that some, who oppose the present government in Ethiopia, can talk seriously, or even agitate for armed rebellion. Rumours abound of guerrilla groups being trained in other countries, in the fashion which preceded the creation of Zimbabwe, the present haven of the erstwhile leader Mengistu. What truth there is in such stories is impossible for an observer to determine, but the possible implications are surely immense and frightening.
The recent conference in Washington between representatives of the major factions, the Government and the State Department, with important ambassadorial participation, appears to have been a step forward. Whereas, the formerly strident agitation of the so-called intellectuals of the All Amhara Peoples' Organisation, surely a misnomer, seems to have become more moderate, even conciliatory, since their leader, a former Dean of the Faculty of Medicine, was indicted on charges of sedition, the uncompromising attitude of the Oromo people, a major tribal group, is both disappointing and somewhat chilling in its implications.
Nonetheless, the position of Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa makes it extremely vulnerable to threats and unrest around its borders. Sudan and Somalia on either side, with continuing problems in and around Djibouti, to say nothing of the less than stable Kenya to the south, are all causes of concern for any government and for the leaders of their small, if successful, professional army.
The original objective of the last emperor has been achieved, many years after his death. What is the future role for the OAU? Is it to be allowed to wither away simply because many states are unwilling to continue their contributions? Would they prefer to use their countries' meagre resources, or borrow the money, with which to buy 'hardware'? Any news bulletin from Africa these days reports internecine strife somewhere on the continent. There are alleged to be sixteen such confrontations at the present time. The question must be posed as to the motives, indeed, the very sanity of those who would seek to add Ethiopia to the list. There is now a prospect in the forthcoming elections for there to be a representative government in Ethiopia for the very first time. Are the disparate peoples of this country willing to let the elections proceed without interruption, indeed, are other members of the OAU giving aid and comfort to those who can do nothing but destroy? No meaningful alternative has been proposed to that of the Transitional Government and its supporters. Nonetheless, the critics have many complaints; the election is not 'democratic', whatever that is supposed to be; many people do not have a vote; the list is endless. It is surely ludicrous to expect that an election in a country like Ethiopia with all the major problems of communication, illiteracy and the rest, can suddenly arrange an election such as might be expected in Western Europe. Is it not sufficient to accept that if this is not perfect, whatever else it is, it is a new beginning?
Four years is a very short time in which to establish a new approach to the political process in any country. If Ethiopia is to develop in any meaningful way, or even to survive, further armed conflict must surely be avoided, at all costs. The presence in the city of an active, coherent and dedicated OAU may only result from a peaceful Ethiopia, ready and willing to take the initiatives necessary to give leadership to this ravaged Africa.
There is a view, which has much support, that the future of the entire continent rests in South Africa. On purely economic terms this would be difficult to refute. Could it be that the real future, based on peace and stability may lie here? If the people of Ethiopia are at last to be given a chance to live and develop, this may only come from the success of the present valiant attempts to find a formula for a representative government. Within the country, the tasks facing any government are daunting in the extreme: to try to recover from two massive political convulsions in less than a quarter of a century, to redress the massive economic disaster of thirty years of war, compounded by seventeen years of a command economy, all against a background of internecine strife. Outside interference is scarcely welcome.
The need for a forum, a focal point of reason and sound policy, to say nothing of basic common sense, is staring Africa in the face, or do they think the UN can suddenly become effective? The answer to that question may not be long delayed.
Such are the views of an observer, not a politician, not a professional journalist, but someone who has been trying to cope with one of the miniscule problems in a Third World country, namely to teach the principles and practice of orthopaedic surgery. The constraints which prevent a satisfactory and satisfying outcome of this task, are those of the country itself. The shortages of drugs, materials and qualified personnel, the persistent quarrelling amongst those who should be trying to structure the medical services of the country, are all secondary to some of the central issues outlined above. When the election is over, perhaps forces inside and outside the country will begin to show some semblance of common purpose.
[William M. McQuillan, M.B., F.R.C.S., Ed., was formerly senior lecturer and consultant orthopaedic surgeon at Edinburgh University, Royal Infirmary and Princess Margaret Rose Hospital, Edinburgh and is presently professor of orthopaedic surgery at Addis Ababa University.]