Seasonality: economic data and model estimation. Monthly Labor Review | December 1, 1994| | COPYRIGHT 1994 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information) Copyright

What is seasonality? This is a surprisingly difficult question, for which there is no simple answer. At the most basic level, there is the intuition that seasonality is an approximately cyclical pattern in a time series that more or less repeats itself each year. Complicating matters is the possibility that the pattern will drift or change in amplitude from year to year.

The consensus among economists is that three basic exogenous factors give rise to seasonality in economic data.(1) The first factor is the weather: temperature, hours of daylight, and the likelihood ...

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