Imprecise probabilities and scenarios.

From: Futures | Date: October 1, 2005| Author: Tonn, Bruce | Copyright information

Abstract

This paper argues that imprecise probability can be used to describe uncertainty about scenarios. Scenarios are conceptualized as written descriptions of potential future worlds that are based on assessments of economic, political, social, technological, and environmental trends [This description of scenarios follows that provided by Peter Schwartz. P. Schwartz [9], The Art of the Long View, Doubleday, New York, 1991 [9]. Because written, qualitative scenarios ...

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