The Adam Smith Award Address, 2004: global macroeconometric forecasting using 21st century information and analysis. From: Business Economics | Date: January 1, 2005| Author: Klein, Lawrence R. | COPYRIGHT 2005 The National Association for Business Economists. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group.Copyright information

Much of what Adam Smith said in 1776 remains fresh today--particularly on the trade-off between "guns and butter." It is safe to say, however, that he did not anticipate macroeconometric modeling for forecasting and policy analysis. From its beginnings in the 1940s, the standards and the needs of users of forecasts are becoming ever more demanding as the information flow becomes more bountiful. We have evolved from reliance on annual data to the availability of high-frequency data ...