Epidemiologic determinants for modeling pneumonic plague outbreaks.(Research)

From: Emerging Infectious Diseases | Date: April 1, 2004| Author: | Copyright information

Pneumonic plague poses a potentially increasing risk to humans in plague nonendemic regions either as a consequence of an aerosolized release or through importation of the disease. Pneumonic plague is person-to-person transmissible. We provide a quantitative assessment of transmissibility based on past outbreaks that shows that the average number of secondary cases per primary case ([R.sub.0]) was 1.3 (variance = 3.1), assuming a geometric probability distribution, prior to outbreak control measures. We also show that the latent and infectious periods can be approximated by using ...

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