Predicting quarantine failure rates.(Dispatches)

Emerging Infectious Diseases | March 1, 2004| | Copyright

Preemptive quarantine through contact-tracing effectively controls emerging infectious diseases. Occasionally this quarantine fails, however, and infected persons are released. The probability of quarantine failure is typically estimated from disease-specific data. Here a simple, exact estimate of the failure rate is derived that does not depend on disease-specific parameters. This estimate is universally applicable to all infectious diseases.

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Preemptive quarantine (isolating asymptomatic persons who have had contact with an infected person) is ...

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